February 2010
26th February, 2010
House prices slip in the winter snow during February: Nationwide
House prices fell by 1.0% month-on-month in February, according to the Nationwide Building Society's latest survey.
The price decline may be explained by snowy weather and the expiry of stamp duty holiday, says the Society, but "it is too early to say whether February’s drop is the start of a new trend".
Commenting on the figures, Martin Gahbauer (below right), Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "The price of a typical UK property fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.0% month-on-month (m/m) in February, ending a strong run of nine consecutive monthly increases. The relatively smoother three month on three month rate of inflation remained positive at +1.6%, though this is down from +2.0% in January and a peak of +3.7% in September 2009.
"The annual rate of price inflation still managed to increase from 8.6% to 9.2% year-on-year, as this month’s fall was smaller than the 1.5% m/m decline recorded in February 2009. The average price of a typical property sold in the UK during February was £161,320".
Setback
"There is evidence from a range of indicators that the market may have lost momentum in early 2010 as the stamp duty holiday ended and house hunters were obstructed by the icy weather. New buyer enquiries dropped sharply in the New Year and there was also an associated drop in the number of new mortgages taken out by homebuyers in January. This drop in demand seems to have fed into agreed prices during February.
"Judging from the fall in retail sales during January, however, the housing market does not appear to be the only sector of the economy to have experienced a setback related to adverse weather and the expiry of economic stimulus measures.
"At this stage, it is difficult to gauge how much of the drop in housing activity is attributable to one-off factors and therefore whether February’s fall in prices is just a temporary blip or the start of a new trend".
9th February, 2010
House prices rise again but weather depresses activity: RICS
House prices rose again in January but buyer interest and new instructions to sell property fell as bad weather hit activity in the market, says RICS' latest UK Housing Market Survey.
In January, thirty-two percent more chartered surveyors reported a rise than a fall in house prices, up from thirty percent in December. However, the net balance of surveyors reported that buyer enquiries fell for the first time in fourteen months, while new instructions dropped for the first time in seven months.
Twenty percent more chartered surveyors reported a fall than a rise in new buyer enquiries, down from a positive reading of eighteen percent, while a net balance of five percent of surveyors saw a decline in new instructions, which compares with a positive balance of fifteen percent in December. The bad weather clearly had a negative affect on business, with newly agreed sales also falling for the first time in ten months.
Indicator
However, surveyors are optimistic that these negative signs are a reflection of the extreme weather conditions experienced in the early part of the month. The number of surveyors expecting house prices to rise increased from twelve percent to twenty-four percent, while the number of surveyors expecting sales to pick up over the next three months rose from seven percent to twenty-four percent in January.
Transaction levels fell slightly in January. The number of sales per surveying firm fell from nineteen to eighteen, while the closely watched sales to stock ratio - a measure of market slack and a lead indicator of future prices - fell for the second successive month.
The cold snap in January clearly has a huge impact on both supply and demand in the housing market with activity coming to a halt amidst the seasonal chaos. Activity and interest is likely to pick up in the coming months as the market experiences a spring bounce.
"House prices are likely to rise in the short term but if more supply continues to come onto the market, it is possible that the market will run out of steam in the latter part of the year", said RICS spokesperson Ian Perry.
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January 2010
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