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August 2010

25th August, 2010

Improved affordability proves less constraining for first-time buyers: Halifax

Research from the Halifax, the UK’s largest first-time buyer lender, reveals that currently monthly mortgage payments as a percentage of income are nearly half that of the level of 2007.

In contrast, over half of first-time buyers say that affordability is the main reason why they have not stepped onto the property ladder.

The number of first-time buyers* in the first half of 2010, at 94,600, is half that of the same period for 2007, but has increased by 28% against the same period last year.

Exempt

The combination of lower house prices and interest rate reductions to historically low levels has created a marked improvement in monthly costs for those buyers wanting to take their first steps onto the property ladder.

Indeed, says the Halifax, the proportion of a typical new homeowner's disposable earnings devoted to mortgage payments has almost halved from a peak of 50% in June 2007 to 28% in June 2010, below the 34% average over the past twenty-five years. In addition to this, 94% of first-time property purchases are now exempt from stamp duty, with 54% of first-time buyers saying that is has helped them to purchase their home.

Despite the marked improvement in monthly affordability, tightening in lending criteria since the onset of the credit crunch in 2007 may have deterred first-buyers from trying to secure mortgage finance. There are now indications that the environment is improving.

Challenges

Only 3% of first-time buyers say a lack of suitable mortgage products has prevented them buying a home and eight out of ten first-time buyer mortgages are approved**. Whilst deposits in loan to value terms increased during 2008, the average deposit put down by a first-time buyer today has been unchanged as a percentage of purchase price since early in 2009.

Stephen Noakes, commercial director for mortgages, commented: "We believe it's important that first-time buyers understand that whilst there are still challenges in raising deposits, other market conditions are more positive.

"Affordability has significantly improved, meaning the amount of a typical first-time buyer's monthly pay packet that needs to be dedicated to their mortgage is now below the twenty-five year average and importantly, despite perceptions, eight out of ten first-time buyer mortgages are approved".

Key Findings

     Despite slower growth in house prices and interest rates holding at historically low levels, only 35% of buyers say that they are taking advantage of the current economic climate.

     Eight out of ten first-time buyer loans are approved.**

     94% of all first-time home purchases are now exempt from stamp duty.

     Only 3% of first-time buyers state that a lack of mortgage products has held them back from purchasing their first home.

     First-time buyers put down an average deposit of £30,380 in 2010 quarter 2, equivalent to 22% of the property price.

     The typical buyer takes between three and five years to amount their deposit in the current market.

     A 10% deposit on an average first-time buyer property today is £13,940.

     64% of buyers purchase a home because they’d rather own than rent.

     Seven in ten are making lifestyle sacrifices in order to save their deposit.

     Nearly a third of first time buyers are stepping onto the property ladder in order to take the next step in life such as getting married or having children.

     One in ten buyers is putting off getting married or having children in order to buy a home.

     12% are taking a second job to help their finances.

     Over a quarter of homebuyers have not been on holiday in over a year to save money for a deposit.

     10% move back in with their parents to help save for their deposit.

     44% of buyers will compromise on the area they move to in order to get the type of property they want.

First Time Buyers:
Average Price, Loan and Deposit by Region, 2010, Quarter 2

* Source: CML, Banksearch, 'Regulated Mortgage Survey', June 2010
** First-time buyer mortgage approvals across Lloyds Banking Group brands for first half of 2010

 

19th August, 2010

Gross mortgage lending up 5% in July, says Council of Mortgage Lenders

Gross mortgage lending totalled an estimated £13.6 billion in July, a 5% increase from £12.9 billion in June - but down 3% from £14 billion in July 2009, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

The new data suggest that lending remains on track to meet the Council's new revised forecast, published earlier this month, of £140 billion for the year as a whole.

In their latest market commentary, CML economist Paul Samter comments: "It is difficult to see anything other than a slow market for the rest of this year as underlying activity remains subdued. The rest of 2010 is likely to see rather lower lending and transaction numbers compared to the same period last year.

Majority

"Late 2009 saw a pick up as some home buyers looked to move before the end of the first stamp duty holiday.

"But for most home owners, the situation is not that bleak. The vast majority of households continue to pay their mortgages in full every month, and many have benefited from the record low interest rates. This looks set to continue for some time yet.

"While there are a range of risks to the outlook, low rates will further help most stay on top of their finances".

 

16th August, 2010

Upbeat July at Hamptons International, as property sales increase

Hamptons International, one of the UK’s premier residential estate agencies, has announced a 24 per cent increase in the number of net sales achieved in July 2010, compared with July 2009.

The news comes as downbeat industry price predictions show no signs of slowing sales volumes in London and the South.

The upbeat market in July follows what was a subdued June across the industry due to austerity measures delivered in the emergency budget and the fallout from a changing political landscape. July, however, has seen a sharp return in confidence, says the company, as a greater understanding of the personal financial impact of the budget, along with more realistic pricing by vendors, has encouraged large numbers of buyers to enter the market.

Key sales highlights:

    Net sales across the Hamptons network increased by 24 per cent from July 2009, a 12 per cent increase on June 2010

    New property instructions increased by 24 per cent compared with July 2009

    Prices have fallen by an average of 5 per cent, following increases of 5 per cent earlier in the year as vendors react to the increased stock levels with realistic pricing expectations

Marc Goldberg, Head of Sales at Hamptons International, commented: "As predicted, housing stock levels are increasing across the board as speculative vendors make a welcome return to the market. The more stable pricing outlook for the remainder of the year is acting as an incentive to prospective vendors. With no reason to hold back from putting property on the market to benefit from future potential short term gains in pricing, we are seeing a welcome number of new properties coming onto the market to help meet increasing demand".

Deepen

In spite of the expected deceleration in the market over the summer, applicants registering their interest in purchasing a new home through Hamptons outnumber new properties coming onto the market by 7:1.

Goldberg continued: "We saw the pricing expectation gap between vendors and purchasers deepen during Spring 2010. We are, however, looking towards an autumn where low interest rates coupled with higher stock levels will create a stable market environment.

"July has been an active and positive month for Hamptons International but the overall market still shows signs of inconsistencies with some areas outperforming others".

 

13th August, 2010

NAEA: July bounce-back sees market recovery trend restored

The housing market experienced one of its strongest months of the year so far in July, according to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA).

The NAEA’s monthly market report found that demand for housing had increased, more sellers were putting property onto the market and the average agent made more sales than in June.

The average estate agent in July had 292 registered house hunters, up from 279 in June. Supply was also up, with agents reporting an average of 68 properties on their books, compared to 59 in June.

Fragile

The percentage of sales being made to first time buyers (FTBs) also increased from 21% to 26%, suggesting that the decision to raise the threshold of Stamp Duty Land Tax to £250,000 is translating into sales.

Michael Jones, President of the NAEA, said the market report showed that the fragile recovery that has defined the market in 2010 was continuing. "Demand and supply both increased in July, which is great news for the housing market", he said. "However we should not get carried away – what we are seeing is a slow, steady and patently fragile recovery. One thing which is interesting is that consumer confidence in the market appears to be high, despite apparent uncertainty elsewhere about the future of the economy".

Mr Jones said that agents typically expected a slower month in August, as families put aside housing plans to enjoy the holiday. And he warned that lenders are still being too restrictive.

He said: "One message that estate agents throughout the country are giving us is that the market needs more lending".

 

11th August, 2010

Fixed rate mortgages gained in popularity in June, says CML

48% of new borrowers took out a fixed rate mortgage in June, the highest proportion so far in 2010, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Fixed rates had proved unpopular this year compared to the last several years, due to an historic low bank rate with little prospect of the rate rising. But with fixed rate prices falling they are starting to find favour again.

House purchase lending increased significantly in June, says the CML. There were 52,000 loans advanced (worth £7.6 billion), up 19% in volume (23% in value) from May 2010 and up 14% in volume (27% in value) from June 2009. This is now the twelfth consecutive month in which lending has been higher than its year-earlier levels, says the CML.

Lending for remortgage also increased, though only modestly, in June. There were 27,000 loans for remortgage, worth £3.4 billion, up from 26,000 (worth £3.2 billion) in May 2010 but down from 34,000 (worth £4.2 billion) in June 2009.

For the second quarter as a whole, there were 136,000 house purchase loans, worth £19.7 billion. This is 20% higher (by volume and value) than the last quarter and up 17% (by volume) and 30% (by value) than quarter two 2009.

For remortgaging, the second quarter saw 77,000 loans (worth £9.6 billion), up 2% by volume, with no change in value, from the first quarter, but in stark contrast to house purchase lending, the figure was down 20% (by volume) and 19% (by value) from the second quarter of 2009.

There were 52,200 loans (worth £6.2 billion) to first-time buyers from April to June, up from 43,400 (worth £5 billion) from January to March and 85,300 home mover loans (worth £13.5 billion), up from 70,700 (worth £11.2 billion).

Credit criteria have become a little more fluid in recent months but remain tight overall, in the context of continuing business and market constraints.

CML economist Paul Samter said: "For the time being, the effects of government spending cuts have yet to make an impact on mortgage demand, and activity continues on its upward trajectory.

"But we still expect house purchase activity to be muted in the coming months. Both consumer demand and lending capacity remain distinctly difficult to call, especially in the light of the government's austerity measures and their possible impact".

 

9th August, 2010

House prices fall for the first time in a year: RICS

In July more chartered surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices, for the first time since July 2009, as demand from purchasers slipped back and the number of properties coming to the market continued to increase, says the latest RICS UK Housing Market survey.

Eight per cent more surveyors reported a fall rather than a rise in house prices - the lowest reading in more than a year, when sixteen per cent more reported price falls.

In contrast, last month saw eight per cent more surveyors reporting rising, not falling prices. Regionally, the only areas which continued to see material price rises in the past month were London and the North West.

Rise

Demand for property, measured by the net balance of new buyer enquiries, fell for the second month in a row, from -6 to -10. Difficulty in securing mortgages and increased uncertainty about the prospects for the economy may have contributed to caution from potential homebuyers.

The number of new vendor instructions, which in effect measures the amount of properties coming to the market, increased. 33 per cent more surveyors reported a rise rather than fall in properties to their books, up from 28 per cent in June.

This is the highest reading since May 2007, the month before the initial planned introduction of HIPS. Since the abolition of HIPS in May this year, it appears some homeowners are now a little more willing to test the property market.

In keeping with the trend of increased supply to the market, the average number of properties on surveyors’ books also rose by 4.1 per cent from June, taking the average to 69.1. Meanwhile, the average number of sales per surveyor stayed flat, at 16.6 (down 0.1 per cent).

As a result, the sales to stock ratio – a useful indicator of market slack, says RICS – fell to 24 per cent, the lowest level since June 2009. Newly agreed sales remain largely unchanged, with one per cent more surveyors reporting a rise than fall in the number of transactions, down from three per cent in June.

Consistent

Looking forward, expectations for house price increases have also turned negative, with 28 per cent more surveyors expecting prices to fall over the coming months, up from six per cent in June. Despite this, sales expectations remain positive, with eight per cent more surveyors expecting sales to rise rather than fall, although this is down from the previous month.

"The fall in the RICS house price measure is broadly consistent with most other recent data that has been released, said RICS spokesperson, Ian Perry. This is a reflection of both the increase in supply following the scrapping of HIPS and the more cautious stance from buyers.

"Significantly, the forward looking price expectations numbers suggest that this softer trend will continue through the second half of the year. However, agents are still generally optimistic about sales activity which should benefit from more realistic pricing of properties".

 

4th August, 2010

House prices rose by 0.6% in July, says Halifax

UK house prices went up by 0.6% in July, according to the latest edition of the Halifax's House Price Index. This modest rise offset the 0.6% fall in June.

House prices in July were 4.9% higher on an annual basis, as measured by the average for the latest three months against the same period a year earlier. This was below the 6.3% increase in June and compares with a recent high of 6.9% in May.

Prices in July were marginally (0.8%) lower than at the end of 2009 but are 8.3% above their April 2009 trough. The average house price is now £167,425, 16% below its August 2007 peak.

Lower

Housing market activity is broadly stable. Bank of England industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase in the three months to June - a leading indicator of completed house sales - were modestly (2%) higher than in the previous quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

But activity remains significantly lower than a few years ago with approvals 56% lower in 2010 Quarter 2 compared with 2007 Quarter 2.

Low mortgage rates have reduced the burden of servicing mortgage debt, says the report. Nationally, typical mortgage payments for a new borrower have fallen from a peak of 48% of average disposable earnings in 2007 Quarter 3 to 30% in 2010 Quarter 2. This key measure of affordability is at a more favourable level than the long-term average over the past twenty-five years (37%) and is a key factor supporting housing demand.

In separate research to be released later this week, Halifax has found that the total value of privately owned housing stock in the UK more than doubled over the past decade. There was a 118% increase from £1,719 billion in 1999 to an estimated £3,755 billion in 2009. During the same period, the retail price index rose by 29%.

Mixed

However, since 2007 the value of housing stock in the UK has declined by 8%. This reflects the reduction in house prices between mid 2007 and early 2009. The improvement in house prices in 2009 saw housing value grow by an estimated 2% during the year.

Commenting on the new data, Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax, said: "House prices increased by 0.6% in July, reversing the fall in June. Overall, there has been little change in prices during 2010 so far. The mixed pattern of monthly rises and falls over the first seven months of the year is consistent with a slowing market. It is also in line with our view that house prices will be broadly unchanged over 2010 as a whole.

The increase in the number of properties for sale over the past few months, boosted by the recent abolition of HIPs, has relieved much of the pressure that was driving up prices in 2009. Low interest rates and a recovering economy, however, are underpinning demand and continue to support the market".

The annual change numbers are the quarterly year-on-year figures. These figures provide a better picture of underlying trends compared to a monthly year-on-year number as they smooth out any short-term fluctuations.

1. INDEX

The standardised index is seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Bureau of the Census XII moving-average method based on a rolling 84-month series. Each month, the seasonally adjusted figure for the same month a year ago and last month's figure are subject to revision.

2. STANDARDISED AVERAGE PRICE

The standardised average price is calculated using the Halifax's mix adjusted methodology.

3. PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO

Ratio of the Halifax standardised average price to national average earnings for full-time male employees. Price Earnings ratios revised to reflect new data in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE).

e Halifax estimates.

 

2nd August, 2010

Prime London prices begin to fall back after a fifteen month surge, says Knight Frank

Knight Frank have published the results of their July 2010 Prime Central London Index.

The new report suggests that the market for prime property in the heart of the capital is beginning to slow down.

    Prices for prime London property fell in July by 0.5%, the first monthly decline since March 2009.

    Despite this month’s reversal, prices are still 23.4% higher than they were at their lowest point last March.

    However, prices are now 6.1% below their March 2008 peak.

    Price falls have affected all parts of the capital – with the exception of Mayfair, which posted 0.2% growth.

    The main problem facing vendors in the capital is over-ambitious pricing on stock – which in some cases means that asking prices are between 5% and 10% higher than buyer expectations.

Liam Bailey, Knight Frank’s head of residential research commented: "The slowdown in the London market has been anticipated for several months; the bounce in pricing on the back of low interest rates and weak sterling had driven prices close to peak levels, and in some cases above these levels.

"The market experienced a severe lack of houses for sale during late 2009 and early 2010, which helped to push prices higher. Since May demand has fallen back by 8% – anecdotally price rises have begun to encourage potential buyers to think about renting again – and supply has also risen (by 7%) as vendors look to take advantage of higher prices.

Evidence

"A key indicator of the health of the market is the ratio of asking-to-achieved prices, which hit 97% in May and which is now 95%. Most agents across the capital believe that asking prices are between 5% and 10% higher than where the actual market is at the current time.

"This month's price fall is only one piece of evidence, but allied to the decline in asking-to-achieved prices we believe that our forecast for around 5% price growth in central London for the whole of 2010 will be borne out, which suggests that prices will fall by around 3.2% during the final five months of the year.

"The healthiest parts of the market are the entry level end and the very top end – with prices only slipping by 0.2% in the sub-£1m and the £10m+ markets. The weakest markets are the mid range £3m to £5m sectors, which had seen the biggest price rises over the past 15 months".

 

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